The Shivkumar Institute

By Prof V Shivkumar

Donald Trump’s presidency has been one of the most unusual chapters in American political history—marked by charisma, disruption, and unpredictability. A nice man, deeply religious in many ways, yet profoundly erratic in his administration. I would like to say, with a bit of candor, that his engagement with the presidency is perhaps coming to an end—and very rapidly at that.

There are a few things I would like to mention—he reminds me of an enthusiastic sportsman, rushing in without realizing the consequences. He seems to be imbued with the zeal of MAGA. He had experience, yes, but still does not seem to have learned his lessons.

It is as though he is now riding a rough sea. He started off well from the shore but soon found himself surrounded by waves, shocks, and even the deadly “whales” of Europe and other Western powers. Trump is no longer just facing internal issues—he is confronting the world. It’s a battle between white countries, or more precisely, factions of Western power structures.

There are two or three observations worth highlighting that show just how erratic his policies have become. In the beginning, he made sweeping promises: to reduce prices, bring down inflation, and usher in peace. These were noble goals, stated with clarity and energy. But somewhere along the way, he lost his direction. The ship began to sway. He is no longer in control.

External shocks—from Europe, Great Britain, France, and other countries, including Iran—have started to push back. What were once confident beginnings have become stumbling blocks.

Immigration: A Turning Point
Immigration was one of the first major issues. The United States has long faced challenges on this front—since the 1970s and 1980s, when people from Asia, South America, China, Taiwan, and elsewhere came in search of opportunities. They earned dollars and sent them home, contributing to both economies. America, as Kennedy once said, became a proud land of immigrants.

Over time, both Republican and Democrat presidents made concessions to support immigrants, recognizing their value to the labor market and industrial growth. But Trump approached the issue with anger and extremism, seemingly to please his far-right base. His declarations—”I’m going to shoot them down, chain them, deport them”—were not just unpresidential, they were inhumane. Deportation, if necessary, could have been done in a respectful manner. But he chose spectacle over statesmanship.

This deeply hurt many people, especially from India, South Asia, Japan, and even Canada. They felt betrayed and insulted.

Tariffs and Erratic Trade Policy
The second issue was trade—specifically his policies towards Mexico and Canada. Tariffs are not new in American history. Many presidents have used them, and some have succeeded. But Trump reintroduced tariffs in a haphazard, tit-for-tat manner. A 25% tariff here, a retaliation there. No structure. No plan. It became a “barbaric” eye-for-an-eye approach.

Even the President of Mexico commented, “This is not how tariffs are meant to be used.” The result? Deepening rifts with allies—France, Britain, Europe at large, and West Asia. Some leaders voiced opposition; others disapproved in silence. But the damage was done. Trump’s popularity dwindled both internationally and at home.

Isolation vs. Intervention
This duality has always been part of U.S. policy: isolationism versus global engagement. At times, America withdraws entirely. At others, it interferes everywhere—from Asia to Africa, from Latin America to Europe. The U.S. has bombarded, overthrown governments, and criticized others, often unprovoked. Iraq, Libya, Syria—Iran too—have all faced this interventionist mindset.

Trump claims he wants to make America great again, yet behaves in ways that isolate it further in a world that is now unmistakably multipolar. After the Soviet Union’s fall, the world expected a shift. But conservative ideologues imagined a unipolar world with America dictating terms. Trump seems to long for that world, forgetting the rise of nations like South Korea, Japan, and India. Economically and technologically, they are strong—and they cannot be commanded with threats.

A president must engage with the world, negotiate, and show leadership through diplomacy—not aggression.

The Cabinet of Chaos
He has entered a political boxing ring like a bull in a china shop—causing chaos, issuing erratic statements, and insulting fellow heads of state. His approach to leadership has taken a confrontational and disruptive turn. Yes, he may have acted this way in boardrooms. But international forums require grace.

Elon Musk offers a parallel. Once admired, now controversial. Sponsors have withdrawn. Tesla is being overtaken by European automakers. Imports are down. Asia follows suit. The same fate awaits Trump if he continues to alienate people.

He said he would tackle inflation and boost growth. But the numbers tell a different story. Biden’s term saw 2.5% GDP growth. Today, it has dropped to 1.8%. Unemployment is rising. American workers don’t want the jobs immigrants once did—and those immigrants were deported with chains on their legs and forced onto military planes. That spectacle was not just unnecessary—it was unethical.

His appointees—Secretaries of State and Defense—seem clueless. Musk and his inner circle behave with arrogance. It’s a circus of poor governance.

War, Repression, and the Road Ahead
Three issues are dragging America down: 1) unnecessary war with the Houthis in Yemen, 2) a brutal war against Hamas—partly justified but overdone, and 3) Trump’s approach to Iran and Muslims at large, including plans to strike Iran’s nuclear sites.

These decisions are likely to have serious repercussions. The media will turn. So will the voters. Countries like India might smile and nod, but they will quietly import oil from Russia, Iran, or Venezuela. Every nation is watching—and surviving.

Trump has crossed the Rubicon and is plunging America into chaos. If he does not correct course, I doubt he can last the next two years. He must remove the dramatists and noise-makers and bring in real economists, scholars, and statesmen.

One moment he calls Zelensky a Nazi; the next, someone from his own circle gives a Nazi-style salute. He appears emboldened by power and aspires to a legacy like FDR’s. But Trump is no Roosevelt. He more closely resembles Andrew Jackson—erratic, divisive, and ultimately unpopular.

I fear Trump’s second term will end not with triumph, but with retreat—perhaps even forced resignation.

Footnote
Let me conclude. It was the United States that supported the formation of the International Trade Union (ITU), which became the WTO. America shaped the global order.

It was the U.S. that insisted the UN be based in New York, not Geneva. They even requested France to gift the Statue of Liberty—to stand beside the UN as a beacon of hope. Trump now wants to defund the UN, WHO, and many global institutions. Once a voice for peace, America under Trump now shouts for war. This reversal in American policy is deeply concerning and requires thoughtful correction.

Nations rise or fall not by slogans, but by decisions. And the world is watching closely which way America will choose.